Module 6: The future of artificial intelligence

The future progress of AI

  • Promising near-term applications of AI
    • machine learning will drive field for next few years, its a new kind of statistics
      • Easy to predict the future, hard to say when it will happen
    • commercial value will focus on making new things possible, that were not possible before. It’s not just about eliminating jobs
    • AI technologies supporting autonomous driving. 
      • “blunder” stopping will be a huge benefit, in general.
    • diagnosis, monitoring and treatment personalize
    • move people and goods in more efficient ways
    • Keep information private and safe
    • Expansions in education.
  • Promising areas of progress in AI
    • AI helping cognitive tasks, and robotics helping our physical tasks.
    • Machines are not good at figuring things out, without labeled data. We will see more ML systems that are able to learn more small data or in the moment interactions in the world.
    • Machines need to advance in common sense knowledge
    • Human/machine interactions
    • make new machines faster
    • Interpretabilty is important  the ability to explain what they are doing, what’s happening to them, how are they reaching their conclusions
  • What will be especially hard for AI
    • Interaction with physical world. easier to send a robot to mars, than to clear your dinner table.
    • Creating more capable robot bodies and controllers
    • We do routine things, they we learn to do routine things… the latter take common sense.
  • Adoption rates for technology
    • Things take a long time… FYI – “No hands across America” first robotics vehicle drove coast to coast in 1995. oh, and Amazon launched in 1995…it’s only now that they are gaining dominance. However, adoption rates for new tech are plummeting…
  • Concerns surrounding human-level AI
    • Marvin Minsky “Keep us as pets” ~1970 Life Magazine
    • Current systems appear to be human like way, but they do not know what they are doing. Most systems are carefully crafted, AlphaGo cant play chess…
    • All current day solutions are point solutions.
    • People feel like the AI apocalypse is upon us vs Ai will solve all of the worlds problem  we are not there…
  • How far away is general AI?
    • Excitement has brought a lot of people in to the field.
    • One day we will have computers that will have general intelligence.
    • it’s far away…
    • Andrew Ng… “Worrying about machines taking over is like worrying about overcrowding on Mars.”
    • Amara’s Law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” ~Roy Amara
    • The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions
  • Conclusion
    • We are able to discover things that never could have been before.
    • we are figuring out our intelligence… wow.
    • Business, enabling discovery in all fields and powering the economy.
    • People today are developing the science, engineering, and application of intelligence. wow.
    • Clarke’s Three Laws:
      • “When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.” ~Arthur C. Clarke
      • “The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.” ~Arthur C. Clarke
      • “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” ~Arthur C. Clarke

What makes a group smart?

  • Measuring the collective intelligence of groups
    • Used IQ test to measure collective intelligence of groups, the collective intelligence factors, only moderately correlated to the average intelligence in the groups
  • Factors correlating with collective intelligence
    • Average social perceptiveness, or social intelligence… reading the minds and the eyes,, guessing emotions.
    • Equal Participation in group
    • More women, was correlated with more intelligent groups. tied to social perceptiveness
    • needed
      • high social perceptiveness
  • Face-to-face interaction vs typing text
    • In both cases social perceptiveness lead to greater collective intelligence.
    • social intelligence, helps you to better work with other people.
  • Two requirements for smarter groups
    • Need smart individuals, with abilities to accomplish basic tasks
    • Need to be able to work well together
      • People: interpersonal skills
      • Computers: design computer that can work well with people.